Indonesia recorded its 49th human bird flu death this week, according to the World Health Organization. This surpasses that of neighboring Vietnam with 42 deaths.
Making 2006 the deadliest year since the H5N1 version of bird flu started spreading rapidly amongst the bird population. This brings this year’s worldwide death toll to 66, out of the 99 reported cases (67%).
This number is only for confirmed cases and the actual death toll is likely higher. The World Health Organization reports indicate that other likely cases remained unconfirmed due to the inability to collect samples prior to death.
An example of this is surrounds the 44th confirmed Indonesian bird flu death. The neighbor fell ill with similar symptoms and died prior to samples being obtained. Another neighbor has also died and confirmation of bird flu as cause of death is pending laboratory results.
So far most people who have become ill have had close contact with poultry. Indonesia has some 2 billion chickens and the virus is endemic in these birds in 27 of the 33 provinces.
Culling this many birds would require massive compensation to farmers and chicken owners. Indonesia has been criticized for not carrying out such an effort. Its neighbor Vietnam has carried out an aggressive culling campaign and has not had a confirmed case of the bird flu in 2006.
In July and August Thailand officials conducted large-scale culling of chickens in an attempt to curb the spread of the disease. The aggressive action seems to have paid off with a government official declaring Thailand bird flu free for over a month.
This victory does not obviate the current worldwide risk. The battle ground is currently set in Asia and possibly Africa against this viral enemy. Poverty and lack of healthcare feed the opportunities for the virus to mutate. The more opportunities H5N1 has to mix with the typical human seasonal flu, the greater the likelihood it will acquire the mutations that allow it to spread easily amongst humans. Experts agree if this happens within 6 weeks the worldwide population will be fighting a pandemic battle that will be one for the history books.
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More About Tracy Ph.D.: Tracy Ferea, Ph.D.
Tracy is a published scientist whose research focused on evolution of genomes. She writes for BirdFluSmart.com in an effort to increase the general publics understanding of the risk of a bird flu pandemic. Bird Flu Smart's mission is to prepare the public for a pandemic by providing both information and products that increase preparedness.
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